iPhone: in review. The App Store link lands here the day it clears.
PK
Pike
He priced props for a living before this and helped build the Lab · October 21, 2026
Where the number comes from
1 · Strip the vig
A.J. Brown, receiving yards, 67.5
over -114 → 53.3% under -107 → 51.7% sum 105.0% over, scaled to 100 → 50.8%
A book's two sides add up to more than 100. We scale both back before we believe either one.
2 · Draw the curve
One receiver, FanDuel's alt ladder
5+ yds -1100 → 92% 40+ yds -110 → 52% 80+ yds +1280 → 7% every rung between → a curve
Eleven rungs trace his whole afternoon. The chance of any number you like reads off the line.
3 · Compare
Ponder records a sack, NE at CHI
ours → 47% · fair +111 FanDuel +146 → 41% gap: 6 points of chance a $100 bet returns $17 over fair
FanDuel is paying a longshot's price on a near coin flip. That gap is the whole point, and the app shows it on every row, in both directions.
When there's no ladder
No ladder? No problem. We run our proprietary models that were calibrated from stat-by-stat historical box scores to create our own efficient lines for each leg. A.J. Brown is at 67.5 receiving yards this week and Luther Burden III is at 56.5. Eleven yards sounds like a lot until you draw both weeks as the spreads they are.
Run each man's week as a spread instead of a point, subtract one from the other, and Brown lands ahead about 63 times in 100, which is -170, with a tie as a push a little under 1% of the time. The book's lean on each line still moves the middle, and when FanDuel does sell a ladder we use it instead, because eleven rungs on one player beat our average of everyone. The spread depends on the stat.
Yards miss by a mile, and high more than low
One broken tackle turns a 30-yard day into 110. Pass attempts, by comparison, barely move.
Catches and carries come in whole numbers
"Exactly four" covers everything from three and a half to four and a half, and a push on a 4.5 line is an outcome you have to count.
A touchdown has no line to miss
It is one probability, and it comes off the anytime price once the vig is out.
Margins get fitted on their own
Football games end on 3 and 7 way more than a smooth curve would ever predict, so margins don't borrow anyone else's math.
What's worth a look this week
Week 7, read October 21, 2026, from the beta's guide. None of this is a pick. It is what each bet is worth next to what FanDuel is charging.
Type
The bet
Fair
Chance
FanDuel
Or Bet
Either Tate or Watson scores · CLE at TEN
+150
40%
+150
Or Bet
Either Schultz or Likely scores · NYG at HOU
-104
51%
+105
Milestones
Ponder records a sack · NE at CHI
+111
47%
+146
Head to Head
A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III, receiving yards · NE at CHI
-170
63%
not priced
In the app
Real screens from the beta, on the NFL Week 7 board.
The hub
Five doors, each opening on the desk's own picks.
Podium
One player to lead his game in a stat.
Combine For
FanDuel's own specials, our chance beside each.
Game Bullseye
Every exact margin, priced off the spread curve.
More of the app
Or Bet
Either Schultz or Likely scores. FanDuel sells the pair at +105; we make it -104.
Milestones
Every rung FanDuel sells, with our chance beside its price. The bar is the gap.
Head to Head
Two groups, one stat, and our lean on every player's row.
Things people ask
Is this FanDuel?
No, and we're not affiliated with them. We read the same prices your phone does.
When can I use it?
When Apple clears our review, and on Android the same day. It's in beta until then and we're not touching the app while they're looking at it.
Does it place bets?
No. It opens your FanDuel slip with the picks in it, and you take it from there. The link carries the picks and never a stake.
What won't it price?
A combo no book sells as one bet, a player it can't match for sure, and the lean between two legs in the same game, which it tells you about rather than pretending to fix.
The desk is out now. The Lab follows it.
NFL and college reads, a record we grade in public, and the weekly tickets that already go straight to FanDuel: Degens Only, F.A.F.O. and Retirement Village. The iPhone app is in review.
Pike is one of OddsDesk's editorial voices. Drafted with a model, read and approved by a person before publishing. OddsDesk is not affiliated with FanDuel; FanDuel is a trademark of its owner.
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