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College Football · Week 8 · 2026·Updated

College Football Week 8 Betting Model Consensus: Where 5 Published Models Stand on Every Game

5 betting models published on OddsDesk read all 27 games still to play and made a call on 9. Where they agree, where they split, and where the house desk stands.

Takeaways

  1. 12model calls this week 5 of 9 published models ran the week: 12 calls on 9 of 27 games, a pass on the rest.
  2. 2 of 6house with the models The house sides with the model majority on 2 of the 6 games where both made a side call. Alone on CAL at SMU: house SMU Mustangs -16.5, models on California Golden Bears.
  3. 4 of 9top-model calls against the rest The top three models (Ranked Home Chalk Fade, Ranked Home Favorites Off a Bye, Ranked Off a Close Loss) made 9 side calls; 4 go against the other models: Ranked Home Chalk Fade on Pittsburgh Panthers +20.5; Ranked Home Favorites Off a Bye on Miami Hurricanes -20.5.
  4. 0-4line toward / against the models Since the lines opened, the spread moved toward the model majority in 0 games and against it in 4; 2 unmoved.

Where a model made a call 9 of 27 games

Saturday, October 24

12:00 PM ET · CW

California Golden Bears at #23 SMU Mustangs

House SMU Mustangs -16.5 High

Trenches yardstick WELL ABOVE (+1.6 SD) via early downs mismatch (CAL adj_line_yards_o #133 vs SMU adj_line_yards_d #19)

Models 1 of 5 that read it made a call.

CAL 10 SMU

Line Spread SMU -16.5 → SMU -19.5 against the desks · Total 54.5 → 55.5

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12:00 PM ET · ESPN

Pittsburgh Panthers at #1 Miami Hurricanes

House Pittsburgh Panthers +23.5 Medium

Ratings Consensus 5.79-point edge across 4 of 4 systems backed by PPA projecting MIA by 16.11

Models 2 of 5 that read it made a call.

PITT 11 MIA

Line Spread MIA -23.5 → MIA -19.5 · Total 53.5 → 48.5

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12:00 PM ET · Fox

#6 Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines

House Indiana Hoosiers -9.5 Medium

Play-by-play sweep across Five Factors and Trenches with Power Ratings projecting a 13.26-point road margin

Models 1 of 5 that read it made a call.

IU 01 MICH

Line Spread IU -6 → IU -7.5 against the desks · Total 52.5 → 42.5

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12:00 PM ET · Peacock

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #24 Northwestern Wildcats

House Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16.5 Medium

Trenches yardstick WELL BELOW (-1.4 SD) with RUTG +0.34 chain edge

Models 1 of 5 that read it made a call.

RUTG 10 NU

Line Spread NU -16.5 → NU -16.5 · Total 58.5 → 58.5

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12:00 PM ET · ABC

#18 LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers

House LSU Tigers -6.5 Medium

Cross-source alignment between Trenches, Five Factors (#1 def success rate), and Talent (103.6 gap)

Models 1 of 5 that read it made a call.

LSU 01 AUB

Line Spread LSU -6.5 → LSU -7 against the desks · Total 50.5 → 51.5

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7:00 PM ET · FS1

Colorado Buffaloes at Oklahoma State Cowboys

House Colorado Buffaloes +14.5 Medium

CFBD play-by-play bloc led by Trenches (BELOW -0.6 SD) and Five Factors (defensive efficiency #10)

Models 1 of 5 that read it made a call.

COLO 01 OKST

Line Spread OKST -14.5 → OKST -13.5 against the desks · Total 54.5 → 56.5

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7:30 PM ET · SEC Network

Vanderbilt Commodores at #12 Kentucky Wildcats

House Kentucky Wildcats -9.5 Medium

Consensus trench and efficiency dominance across two independent sources overrides regressed prior baseline

Models 2 of 5 that read it made a call.

VAN 11 UK

Line Spread UK -9.5 → UK -10.5 · Total 52.5 → 52.5

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10:15 PM ET · ESPN

#14 Houston Cougars at #10 Utah Utes

House Utah Utes -6.5 Low

Utah -6.5 backed by an 11.59-point Power Ratings edge and #6 vs #135 explosiveness mismatch, but desk is thin across independent sources

Models 1 of 5 that read it made a call.

HOU 01 UTAH

Line Spread UTAH -6.5 → UTAH -6.5 · Total 50.5 → 56.5

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Every game: the house call and the line

GameHouseModelsSpread, open to now
DUKE at UVADUKE +6.55 passedUVA -6.5 → UVA -2.5NCSU at STANNCSU -7.55 passedNCSU -7.5 → NCSU -6.5TTU at CINTTU -11.55 passedTTU -11.5WVU at TCUWVU +6.55 passedTCU -6.5 → TCU -10.5CAL at SMUSMU -16.5CAL 1–0 SMUSMU -16.5 → SMU -19.5PITT at MIAPITT +23.5PITT 1–1 MIAMIA -23.5 → MIA -19.5IU at MICHIU -9.5IU 0–1 MICHIU -6 → IU -7.5RUTG at NURUTG +16.5RUTG 1–0 NUNU -16.5LSU at AUBLSU -6.5LSU 0–1 AUBLSU -6.5 → LSU -7BAY at KUKU +2.55 passedBAY -2.5ORE at ILLILL +13.55 passedORE -13.5 → ORE -8.5TA&M at ALAALA -15.5 · Under 53.55 passedALA -2.5 → ALA -13.5OU at MSSTOU -1.55 passedOU -1.5 → OU -3TENN at SCTENN -1.55 passedTENN -2.5 → SC -2.5BYU at UCFBYU -8.55 passedBYU -9.5 → BYU -7BC at GTNo play5 passedGT -6.5 → GT -5.5IOWA at MINNIOWA -4.55 passedIOWA -2.5 → IOWA -7MSU at UCLAUCLA -13.5MSU 1–1 UCLAUCLA -13.5 → UCLA -15.5KSU at ASUKSU -2.55 passedKSU -2.5COLO at OKSTCOLO +14.5COLO 0–1 OKSTOKST -14.5 → OKST -13.5VT at CLEMCLEM +1.55 passedVT -1.5 → CLEM -2.5VAN at UKUK -9.5VAN 1–1 UKUK -9.5 → UK -10.5MISS at TEXNo play5 passedTEX -8.5 → TEX -3.5ISU at ARIZARIZ -105 passedARIZ -10SYR at UNCSYR +9.55 passedUNC -9.5USC at WISNo play5 passedUSC -1.5 → USC -3HOU at UTAHUTAH -6.5HOU 0–1 UTAHUTAH -6.5

The models that ran this week

5 of 9 published College Football models; 4 did not run. Rank is the leaderboard's.

  1. #1 Ranked Home Chalk Fade by Paper Kestrel 208-160-4 · +4.3u last 4 wks
  2. #2 Ranked Home Favorites Off a Bye by Paper Kestrel 95-64-4 · +1.7u last 4 wks
  3. #3 Ranked Off a Close Loss by Paper Kestrel 83-59-4 · +0.8u last 4 wks
  4. #4 Low-Total Conference Road Dogs by Paper Kestrel 334-229 · -0.1u last 4 wks
  5. #6 Middle of a Ranked Gauntlet by Paper Kestrel 101-68-2 · -3.2u last 4 wks

Cite as: OddsDesk, College Football Week 8 betting model consensus, October 22, 2026, https://oddsdesk.ai/ncaaf/consensus

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