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NFL · Week 7 · 2026·Updated

NFL Week 7 Betting Model Consensus: Where 7 Published Models Stand on Every Game

7 betting models published on OddsDesk read all 13 games still to play and made a call on 5. Where they agree, where they split, and where the house desk stands.

Takeaways

  1. 6model calls this week 7 of 24 published models ran the week: 6 calls on 5 of 13 games, a pass on the rest.
  2. 3 of 5house with the models The house sides with the model majority on 3 of the 5 games where both made a side call. Alone on LA at LV: house Las Vegas Raiders +4.5, models on Los Angeles Rams.
  3. 0 of 5top-model calls against the rest The top three models (Fade the Highlight Reel, Early-Season Home Dogs, Road Favorites off a SU Loss) made 5 side calls; 0 go against the other models.
  4. 1-3line toward / against the models Since the lines opened, the spread moved toward the model majority in 1 game and against it in 3; 1 unmoved.

Where a model made a call 5 of 13 games

Sunday, October 25

1:00 PM ET · CBS

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

House Tennessee Titans +1.5 High · Under 38.5 High

Fade the Highlight Reel fires against 75% public ticket split, backed by Power Ratings projecting TEN -3.86 and Cleveland's +2.1 pythagorean luck surplus.

Power Ratings projects 30.34 and Sagarin projects 32.2, combining with bottom-tier offensive EPAs (-0.087 and -0.149) for a massive edge on the under.

Models 1 of 7 that read it made a call.

CLE 01 TEN

Line Spread TEN -2.5 → CLE -1.5 against the desks · Total 40.5 → 37.5

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1:00 PM ET · CBS

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

House Miami Dolphins +4.5 High · Under 38.5 Medium

Fade the Highlight Reel fires with 58% of public tickets on NYJ and fewer than three opposing votes.

Power Ratings projects a 32.53 total against market 38.5, reinforced by NYJ's #31 red-zone EPA.

Models 1 of 7 that read it made a call.

MIA 10 NYJ

Line Spread NYJ -2.5 → NYJ -4.5 against the desks · Total 41.5 → 39.5

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4:05 PM ET · CBS

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

House Arizona Cardinals +4.5 High · Under 43.5 Medium

Fade the Highlight Reel fires at HIGH on Arizona +4.5 against 63% tickets on Denver, backed by a +1.1 Pythagorean luck gap.

Power Ratings projects 36.25 points from Denver's 57.0 plays per game, supported by Arizona's -0.177 red-zone EPA and natural grass under trends.

Models 1 of 7 that read it made a call.

DEN 01 ARI

Line Spread DEN -7.5 → DEN -4.5 toward the desks · Total 43.5 → 43.5

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4:25 PM ET · FOX

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

House Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 Low

Power Ratings projects LV -5.55 and Cousins outpaces Stafford in EPA (0.183 vs 0.074) while LA defensive attrition blunts pressure.

Models 1 of 7 that read it made a call.

LA 10 LV

Line Spread LA -7.5 → LA -3.5 against the desks · Total 46.5 → 48.5

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8:20 PM ET · NBC/Peacock

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

House Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 Medium · Over 42.5 Medium

KC holds overwhelming EPA (+0.155 vs -0.076) and EDSR (0.496 vs 0.420) advantages while Darnold's 3.25s release exposes Seattle's 31st-ranked pass protection.

Power Ratings (63.26) and Sagarin (47.01) both project well above the market line against Seattle's vulnerable secondary and pass protection.

Models 2 of 7 that read it made a call.

KC 01 SEA
Over 01 Under

Line Spread SEA -3 → SEA -3 · Total 45.5 → 42.5 toward the desks

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Every game: the house call and the line

GameHouseModelsSpread, open to now
PIT at NONO +3.5 · Under 44.57 passedPIT -2.5 → PIT -3SF at ATLSF -36 passedSF -4.5 → SF -2.5CLE at TENTEN +1.5 · Under 38.5CLE 0–1 TENTEN -2.5 → CLE -1.5IND at MININD +6.57 passedMIN -2.5 → MIN -6.5MIA at NYJMIA +4.5 · Under 38.5MIA 1–0 NYJNYJ -2.5 → NYJ -4.5TB at CARNo play7 passedTB -1.5 → CAR -3CIN at BALNo play7 passedBAL -3.5 → BAL -1.5NYG at HOUNYG +107 passedHOU -5.5 → HOU -10.5DEN at ARIARI +4.5 · Under 43.5DEN 0–1 ARIDEN -7.5 → DEN -4.5GB at DETDET -3 · Under 53.57 passedDET -2.5 → DET -3LA at LVLV +4.5LA 1–0 LVLA -7.5 → LA -3.5KC at SEAKC +2.5 · Over 42.5KC 0–1 SEA · O 0–1 USEA -3DAL at PHINo play7 passedPHI -3 → DAL -4.5

The models that ran this week

7 of 24 published NFL models; 17 did not run. Rank is the leaderboard's.

  1. #1 Fade the Highlight Reel by Paper Kestrel 38-14-3 · +13.3u last 4 wks
  2. #2 Early-Season Home Dogs by Paper Kestrel 195-137-12 · +6.4u last 4 wks
  3. #3 Road Favorites off a SU Loss by Paper Kestrel 281-201-16 · +2.3u last 4 wks
  4. #4 Double-Digit Divisional Dogs by Paper Kestrel 166-118-8 · +0.9u last 4 wks
  5. #5 High Wind Unders by Paper Kestrel 312-196-5 · +0.8u last 4 wks
  6. #7 Late-Season Divisional Unders by Paper Kestrel 390-285-12 · +0.0u last 4 wks
  7. #8 Primetime Unders by Paper Kestrel 180-123-4 · -1.1u last 4 wks

Cite as: OddsDesk, NFL Week 7 betting model consensus, October 22, 2026, https://oddsdesk.ai/nfl/consensus

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